Hyperlocal Forecasts. Hyperlocal Foretection.™
Anticipate and mitigate violence and conflict-related risks at a hyperlocal level before they materialize to protect your organization's assets and objectives.
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See tomorrow’s risk—today.
Crisis Forecast
Crisis Forecast turns data on political conflict, civilian-related violence, and protests/riots into clear, months-ahead forecasts on an interactive dashboard—so NGOs, development banks, and companies can anticipate danger, locate safer options nearby, and act early to protect their people, missions, assets, and investments. We constantly improve our AI models and our platform. Currently monitoring 12 high priority countries.
- High-resolution forecasts down to neighborhood or village size grid cells for battles, explosions/remote violence, protests & riots, violence against civilians (VAC), VAC fatalities, and looting/property destruction. Forecasts extend 1–6 months in the future.
- Dynamic Threat Mapper™ highlights safe near dangerous and dangerous near safe areas, plus views of locations where risk is rapidly rising and falling.
- Detect building damage severity per structure using advanced satellite technology; aggregate by grid cell; aggregates are also forecasted 1–6 months ahead.
Early-warning information is most useful when it is timely, local, and actionable. Crisis Forecast translates complex event streams into practical, map-first insights—supporting preparedness, protection, and response.
- Updated access maps: monthly updated maps identifying dangerous areas, emergency resources, medical and humanitarian facilities, commercial buildings, and critical transportation and utility infrastructure.
- Asset-aware maps: Indicate where your assets of interest are located on maps, and use them for statistical calculations.
- Personalized grid cells: Create custom filters and save critical notes that can be securely shared. Upload custom data securely to visualize and perform statistics with our data.
Ready to explore? Learn more below!
Credits & licensing
Notice: Copyright: Except where noted below, this video is © 2025 Crisis Forecast, LLC. You may watch via YouTube; no other use is permitted without our written consent.
Title: Central African Refugees in Chad Tell Their Stories
Author: Doctors Without Borders / MSF-USA
License: CC BY 3.0 Source: Wikimedia Commons file page Changes: Edited: audio replaced; segment extracted.
Title: This is Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)
Author: Doctors Without Borders / MSF-USA
License: CC BY 3.0 Source: Wikimedia Commons file page Changes: Edited: audio replaced; segments extracted and reordered.
Title: Central African Refugees in Chad Tell Their Stories
Author: Doctors Without Borders / MSF-USA
License: CC BY 3.0 Source: Wikimedia Commons file page Changes: Edited: audio replaced; segment extracted.
Title: This is Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)
Author: Doctors Without Borders / MSF-USA
License: CC BY 3.0 Source: Wikimedia Commons file page Changes: Edited: audio replaced; segments extracted and reordered.
Services
Featured Services
Identify & assist civilians in harm's way—plan & prioritize programming based on risk dynamics
What you get
- Scenario layers for planning: Baseline (P50), Adverse (P75/P90), and Extreme (P95/P99/99.5) violence forecasts to guide pre-positioning, surge staffing, and buffer inventories.
- Safe-corridor intelligence: Highlight safe near dangerous and dangerous near safe grid cells; compare forecasts to historical medians/averages.
- Asset & Access Intelligence Grids™: Overlays for clinics, potable water, roads, power, ports/airstrips, schools, admin buildings; proximity shading to hotspots with user-set buffers.
- Damage evidence: Building damage-severity category estimates and forecasts for rapid triage, ceasefire monitoring, and reconstruction planning.
- Explainability: Per-cell driver importance charts show why risk changes; confidence intervals quantify forecast uncertainty.
- Pre-position inventories, staff, and assets earlier and cut last-mile delays.
- Keep convoys running by picking safer alternates; know where and when to send patrols.
- Allocate resilience funds where risk and access problems overlap.
- Measure impact by tracking forecast-to-actual deltas and violence/damage reductions where programs operate.
Map exposure, run stress tests, & defend decisions with auditable data
What you get
- Portfolio-ready quantiles: Per grid cell and month—P50 → baseline, P75/P90 → adverse, P95/P99/99.5 → extreme, exportable.
- Faster solvency drills: Map policies or loan assets to cells, run P75/P95 paths, and compute capital required at the 99.5% confidence level.
- Tail-risk focus: Monitor high-risk spillover into previously low-risk grid cells.
- Claims & collateral validation: Building-damage-level classifications with calibrated probabilities; linkages to proximate conflict events for context.
- Sharper pricing & limits: Identify which treaties, loans, or equity stakes drive tail losses—and right-size your capacity or terms accordingly.
- ESG & covenant screens: Automatically flag assets whose forecasted risk exceeds ESG or covenant thresholds—months before problems appear.
Keep products moving & crews safe when conditions change fast
What you get
- Fewer stock-outs: Prevent shortages by raising local inventory before routes become unsafe or blocked.
- Intelligent stoppages: Plan maintenance and crew rotations around forecasted high-risk periods to minimize downtime.
- Proactive security: Anticipate threats early—boost security where risk rises and reroute transport through safer, intact corridors.
- Chokepoint foresight: View forecasted risk for ports, corridors, bridges, and last-mile routes—shown on map grids with distance buffers.
- Auto-reroute rules: Trigger alerts when any location of interest crosses your risk threshold (for example, violence against civilians forecasted at the P95 level).
- Asset & Access overlays: Combine open infrastructure maps with your own secure data—upload depots, suppliers, or warehouses to assess redundancy and security risks.
- Site-level risk to assets: See forecasted risk scores for mines, transmission lines, pipelines, depots, etc. Identify where safe and unsafe zones border each other so you can strengthen weak points.
- Crew protection: Geofenced notifications and safe-passage recommendations.
Intelligently select hotspots for coverage before they turn hot—turn complex conflict dynamics into defensible insights
What you get
- Better story selection: Spot credible emerging hot-spots and dangerous-next-to-safe grid cell anomalies worth covering.
- Policy testing: Compare alternative policies and interventions against P50 (likely) and P95 (worst-case) trajectories by region to see if adjustments are warranted.
- Research integrity: Publish with transparent inputs, documented uncertainty bands, and robust feature importance scores.
Contact
Crisis Forecast
Our Address
1500 East Tropicana Ave, Ste 272, Las Vegas, NV 89119, USA
Open Hours
Monday - Friday: 9:00 - 17:00 Pacific Time
Saturday & Sunday: Closed